So much is going on.
The US and Israel bombed Iran and took out its leaders. Iran is retaliating. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The world is in chaos. Prices have gone up so much at the petrol station (oh, I am so British!). It went from GBP129.9 to 142.9 in a week. Flights back to HK have reached as high as HK$53,000 because Iran is bombing the GCC, including Dubai, which has caused the number of routes from the UK to HK to be reduced dramatically.
Many are screaming about Trump’s lack of a plan, or that they are being reckless, or that they are being led by Israel.
At the same time, there are also voices claiming that this is a 5D chess Trump is supposedly playing—that this is part of a grand plan to corner China and Russia.
Obviously, I don’t know what’s real. All I know is that coverage from either side tilts completely toward its own position. Most on the left refuse to even entertain the idea that there is a 5D grand plan, or that what Trump is doing might be intentionally deceptive in the fog of war. Most on the left will not even debate the possibility of a grand plan, which I find quite frustrating, because I want someone to go deep, explore what is possible, and thoroughly debunk whatever deserves debunking.
Similarly, the other side refuses to admit any wrongdoing or acknowledge any problems with what might be happening. They do not allow any negativity toward the grand plan, and that is very frustrating too. It is almost impossible to be perfect and flawless in any war, let alone one that seems so complex and global.
Let me go deeper for my future self to relitigate this:
5D plan: China and Russia are the real final bosses. The US needs to reduce the role of Iran in order to control China. The US’s actions toward Iran and Venezuela are all part of a plan to strangle China’s sources of oil and force them back to the negotiating table. Trump’s team has been executing on this plan since his first term, including his decision to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the “Iran nuclear deal,” to give the US a path to justify whatever actions they felt were necessary, along with other moves directed at China.
TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out. The left loves to use this to tease Trump. I struggle to accept that him backing down, or changing course, is simply a bad thing. History shows that many countries went to war almost automatically because of entrenched positions or the need to honor agreements. The most ironic thing is that the left mocks Trump for backing down—almost implying he is weak, or that a strong leader should never back down—which is such an outdated (and almost misogynistic) way to measure strength. Should leaders never back down? This is such a macho framing that I find it ironic when the left uses it to criticize him. If it reflects the ability to change and admit defeat, isn’t that a good thing? Well, no, because Trump can do no good.
Illegal war – to me this is the biggest issue. Trump has ignored the rules and etiquettes of modern cooperation too often and too recklessly. It is difficult to ignore the evidence that Trump lacks a clear and sufficiently moral internal compass to guide his actions toward the good of others and the world. He has been selfish, unkind, nasty, and ruthless. This is a real source of concern. I must add that I am looking at him individually. I do not find comparing him to other presidents or politicians meaningful. Many politicians—or humans in general—are flawed. It is not about how good or bad he is in relative terms. It is about his morality as a very powerful person in the world.
Who are we to judge what is right or wrong about Trump’s plans? I don’t know why anyone would think it is sensible for us, as outsiders, to make firm judgments about any of the things we see on the surface of a clearly very complex global situation. I find almost all pundits superficial and borderline irresponsible. They latch onto talking points and do not seem to want to go deeper.
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